Thursday, February 18, 2010

FROM THE STATS LAB

I've come up with a crudely effective season normalizer for SFLOI stats, and ran 357 batter seasons from 1985-2009 through it. The cutoff was 2.5% of each season's total plate appearances, and each batter's OPS was measured against the league-average OPS over the same number of at bats. Now, this season's MVP debate will probably hinge on an unresolvable statistical question: would you rather have 300 at bats of high quality, or 250 at bats of really high quality? The following list gives no credit for people who play more often--it simply measures who you'd want hitting 3rd or 4th for your team on any given day. So, here they are, SFLOI's top 25 seasons:

25. David Sommers, 2006: .550 BA, 7 HR, 40 RBI, 117 PA.
24. Manny Santiago, 1990: .525 BA, 7 HR, 40 RBI, 122 PA. Batting and home run titles.
23. Ian Lebowitz, 2001: .535 BA, 16 HR, 52 RBI, 141 PA. Batting title.
22. Tony Connor, 1985: .500 BA, 0 HR, 14 RBI, 57 PA. Batting title. One of the finest seasons of the pre-modern era.
21. Kurt Hettler, 1992: .482 BA, 23 HR, 84 RBI, 210 PA. Home run and RBI titles. The 1992 stats contain some errors, for example one player is listed as going 23-for-23. This simply couldn't be, and therefore you could make a case for moving Kurt up a few places.
20. Chris Hall, 2005: .580 BA, 5 HR, 53 RBI, 174 PA. Batting title, also led league in hits and runs scored. Chris had the misfortune of having his best seasons in SFLOI's second dead-ball era.
19. Larry Savell, 1989: .520 BA, 6 HR, 36 RBI, 106 PA. Rookie season.
18. Ian Lebowitz, 2000: .545 BA, 12 HR, 38 RBI, 102 PA. Rookie season.
17. Kurt Hettler, 1993: .548 BA, 9 HR, 55 RBI, 181 PA. Batting and RBI titles, led league in doubles and triples.
16. Derek Martinez, 2009: .493 BA, 26 HR, 87 RBI, 249 PA. Home run and RBI titles, also led league in runs scored. Alltime HR record.
15. Alex Rivera, 2009: .532 BA, 16 HR, 57 RBI, 232 PA. Batting title.
14. Carl Weinberg, 2007: .464 BA, 14 HR, 72 RBI, 197 PA. Home run and RBI titles, also led league in doubles and triples. This was the off year of mighty Carl's 2005-2008 prime.
13. Phil Kotik, 1995: .488 BA, 25 HR, 53 RBI, 240 PA. Batting and home run titles.
12. Phil Kotik, 1998: .564 BA, 21 HR, 78 RBI, 186 PA. Home run and RBI titles.
11. Carl Weinberg, 2006: .565 BA, 11 HR, 78 RBI, 217 PA. Home run and RBI titles, also led league in hits, runs, doubles, and triples.
10. Phil Kotik, 1994: .479 BA, 22 HR, 67 RBI, 236 PA. Batting and home run titles.
9. Phil Kotik, 1999: .600 BA, 21 HR, 73 RBI, 167 PA. Batting title. Also led league in runs scored and doubles. 1999 was the highest level of offense ever in SFLOI, that's how there are 8 seasons better than .600 with power.
8. Phil Kotik, 1996: .476 BA, 16 HR, 65 RBI, 193 PA. Home run title, also led league in runs scored.
7. Larry Savell, 2000: .623 BA, 12 HR, 42 RBI, 114 PA. Batting title. Highest single season average ever, but it came in the 2nd best season for offense ever, so read on.
6. Carl Weinberg, 2002: .507 BA, 15 HR, 65 RBI, 158 PA. Triple Crown. Also led league in hits, doubles, and triples, so it's more like the "Sextuple Crown."
5. Phil Kotik, 1997: .548 BA, 21 HR, 83 RBI, 182 PA. RBI title. Sixth and "last" appearance on this list.
4. Phil Ciccone, 2007: .558 BA, 10 HR, 61 RBI, 180 PA. Batting title. Led league in runs scored.
3. Carl Weinberg, 2008: .541 BA, 18 HR, 82 RBI, 209 PA. Batting and home run titles. Led league in doubles and triples. Had a 10-RBI game. I kept Carl from winning the triple crown in the 3rd best SFLOI season ever. I want that on my next baseball card.
2. Phil Ciccone, 2006: .604 BA, 9 HR, 53 RBI, 120 PA. Batting title. SFLOI's version of Ted Williams's .406 season. As a digression, do you have any idea how hard it is to hit .600? I've heard talk around the batting cages that all you need to do is be a mechanical line drive singles hitter, of the Boggs / Carew / Gwynn type-- which of course is a rather infrequent type to show up in our game-- but consider this. 5-for-9 is a bad day.

1. Dan Schneider, 1997: .598 BA, 22 HR, 68 RBI, 126 PA. Batting and home run titles. Why this season? First of all, Dan jacked a home run every 6 times up. Even more impressive, he came within one hit of .600. And '97 was a good season for offense, but not as good as 1998-2001 would be, and the league average becomes a powerful determinant when sorting through endless seasons of .550 and 20 home runs. Dan's SFLOI career contains some mighty strange seasons. He won batting titles in 1992 and '97, had power outbursts of 16 HR's in 114 PA (1998) and 13 HR's in 64 PA (2000), and from 1997 to 2001 hit 65 in 411 PA's, which is kind of like Babe Ruth playing in Coors Field, or Mexico City. However, he also batted 304 times in 1995, and hit only 2 home runs, but had 15 triples and 10 sac flies. Looks like 1995 was played in a spacious outfield without fences, where the outfielders could play what we now call the "Brian Hernandez" defense. Anyway, if I had to face this guy in 1997-2001, he's getting walked. I know that people come to swing the bats, but pitchers shouldn't be used like one of Mike Tyson's sparring partners either, should they?

4 comments:

Sal Cipriano said...

Ian Parfrey: raising softball to a new level. Great piece, bro!

The Stats Lab said...

Other SFLOI notables
Carl Weinberg, 2005 #26
Phil Kotik, 2002 #27
Joe Gerber, 1996 #31
Joe Gerber, 1998 #33
Jose Balento, 1999 #35
Bill Weinberg, 1987 #36
Joe Gerber, 1997 #38
Dan Schneider, 1993 #39
Dan Schneider, 1994 #40
Jose Balento, 1996 #41
Phil Kotik, 1991 #42
Bill Weinberg, 1986 #44
Tony Connor, 1998 #45
Chris Hall, 2004 #47
Ian Parfrey, 2009 #48
Phil Kotik, 1992 #49
Phil Kotik, 1993 #50

Rich Rowlands, 1987 #55
Jeff Appell, 2001 #57
Glen Lawrence, 2001 #69
Bob Holzwasser, 2001 #72
Fred Melendez, 2009 #75
Jorge Loarte, 1990 #87
Bill Vernick, 2002 #89
Zach Nilva, 2009 #94
Bobby Naranjo, 1988 #100
Havelock Hewes, 1985 #127
Gil Schmerler, 2004 #128
Mike Palma, 2004 #136
Don Weiss, 2009 #140
Ivan Jourdain, 2006 #142
Jim O'Connor, 2006 #159
Josh Geller, 2002 #197
Sal Cipriano, 2009 #198
Ben Indek, 1988 #199
Seung Lee, 2006 #246
Fred Lang, 2003 #259
Dave Rosengard, 1991 #279
Marvin Cohen, 1993 #281
Richard Tedesco, 1987 #285
Sue Kostner, 1994 #320
Lee Lowenfish, 1987 #327
Marvin Cohen, 2009 #357

Please note however that Marvin is batting .313 in 2010, and may win Comeback Player of the Year.

Havelock Hewes said...

Parfrey is only #48? SSomething's wrong with the formula.

Sal Cipriano said...

I'm a proud #198. ;)