Tuesday, November 11, 2014

1000 RBI? Not This Decade by Havelock Hewes

   There is a fable about a tortoise and a hare.  They had a race. The rabbit got off to a quick start and established a large lead.  He dawdled and found distraction.  Meanwhile the turtle plodded along and won the race. 
   Sometime during the 2015 season Tony Connor should pass Joe Balento's RBI record of 935.  The turtle will be passing the rabbit.  While we should all be singing about what a "jolly good fellow" our tortoise Tony is, the number 935 is close enough to a larger, rounder number to believe the real race is to the one-thousand mark.  The journey from 935 to 1000 would be a hop-skip-and-jump for a hare such as Joe Balento.  However, given Tony's conservative at-bat-per-season numbers and his age he is projected for about 15 RBI per season - a number which has him reaching the mark in 2020.
  It is unlikely that the barrier will be broken in this decade.  Unless, Joe "the rabbit" Balento remembers he plays softball.  If Joe returned in 2015, even at the conservative rate of 22 RBI per season he would reach 1000 in 2017.  But, as the proverb goes "if 'ifs' and 'buts' were candy and nuts, oh what a Christmas we'd have."
  Third on the "most likely" list is Ian Parfrey, who, if The Long Island Railroad resists giving him a weekend schedule, is due to arrive at 1000 in 2022..."ifs and buts..."
 Fourth on the list, due in during the 2023 season, is the turtlish Havelock Hewes.  He is closely followed by a couple of guys who will have to run like a  rabbit and work like a turtle - Freddie Melendez and Alex Rivera.
 Seventh is Phil Kotik - who, like Balento, could become the favorite if he returned on a full-time basis.
 Chris Hall, Derek Martinez and Larry Savell round out the top ten prospects to get to 1000 first.  All will need to improve attendance to have a shot at breaking the barrier first.
 I know Tony is too honorable a man to get Eric Schulman to grow a long white beard and claim to be Connor for the few months it would take him to reach the 1000 mark.

Top 10 Candidates To Reach 1000 RBI's
Player             Current # of RBI Year Expected
Tony Connor                      927         2020
Joe Balento                        935         Not
Ian Parfrey                         510         2022
Havelock Hewes               756         2023
Freddie Melendez             425         2023
Alex Rivera                       428        2023
Phil Kotik                          701        Not
Chris Hall                          468        2025
Derek Martinez                 412        2026
Larry Savell                      676        2028